38 Search Results for: covid

  • Market Commentary: GDP Substantially Lower than Last Year, S&P Rallies in July

    Posted on August 3, 2020

    U.S. GDP fell 32.9% last quarter on an annualized basis. It wasn’t as bad as it looks. Annualizing the data magnifies the decline by assuming the trend will continue for a full year. A better assessment can be gained by comparing GDP to the same quarter last year.

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  • Market Commentary: S&P 500 Earnings are Strong, but Initial Unemployment Claims Increase

    Posted on July 27, 2020

    The increased number of COVID-19 cases appears to be pressuring employment in the U.S. Last week, the number of initial unemployment claims rose from 1.3 million to 1.4 million. (See Figure 1.) After slowly declining for weeks, the uptick shows signs of a weakening job market.

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  • Market Commentary: S&P 500 Positive for the Year as Retail Sales Rise

    Posted on July 20, 2020

    Evidence for a sharp, although possibly brief, economic recovery continues to mount. As shown in Figure 1, retail sales rebounded another 7.5% in June and are now 1.1% higher than a year ago. Signs of economic reopening showed up throughout the data released last week.

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  • Market Commentary: S&P Climbs Despite Surge in COVID-19 Cases

    Posted on July 13, 2020

    Stocks continued to climb in the face of an increasing number of new COVID-19 cases and evidence the surge is stifling the economy’s ability to recover. Initial unemployment claims dipped to 1.3 million, but they have remained above 1 million for 16 consecutive weeks.

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  • July Newsletter – The Pandemic and the 2020 Election

    Posted on July 6, 2020

    Contributors: Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist and Head of the Global Market Insights Strategy & Meera Pandit, Market Analyst   Since the start of the year, the backdrop for the 2020 election has shifted dramatically, as the next administration’s policies will shape the economic recovery and build the foundation for the next expansion. Historically, incumbent presidents have won reelection unless there was a recession during their term. Now, amidst a deep recession and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression, President Trump will either have to convince voters he has managed this crisis appropriately, driving the reopening of…read the full article

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  • Market Commentary: Markets See Huge Boost as Optimism Outweighs Slowed Reopening

    Posted on July 6, 2020

    The S&P 500 wrapped up its best quarter since 1998, gaining 20.5%, amid a strong employment report and continued concerns as the United States and the world posted a record number of coronavirus cases.

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  • Market Commentary: S&P 500 Dips as COVID-19 Cases Surge

    Posted on June 29, 2020

    The daily total for new virus cases topped 40,000 as a resurgence in the South and Southwest pushed new cases to an all-time-record high. Some states are reporting record hospitalizations and pausing or reversing reopenings. Initial unemployment claims, as shown in Figure 1, remain close to 1.5 million.

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  • Market Commentary: Retail Sales Jump as States Loosen Restrictions

    Posted on June 22, 2020

    Retail sales and food services jumped 17.7% in May, beating estimates of 8% growth. The strong rebound follows sharp declines the previous month created by social distancing. Even with the increase, sales are still 6.1% below where they were one year ago.

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  • Market Commentary: S&P Climbs Despite Record Decline in Consumer Spending

    Posted on June 1, 2020

    Coronavirus actions and reactions continued to swing economic data in the U.S. Consumer spending dropped 13.6% in April. It was the sharpest decline on record dating back to 1959. Income moved in the other direction last month.

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  • Market Commentary: Economy Slightly Improves as Restrictions Loosen

    Posted on May 26, 2020

    Another 2.4 million people filed initial unemployment claims last week. The number has declined for seven straight weeks. Unfortunately, 2.4 million is more than three times higher than the pre-COVID-19 record, and the pace of decline remains slow. Because the number remains stubbornly high, optimism for a sharp economic recovery is dropping.

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